A Phase I Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of MEDI4736 (Durvalumab) With Tremelimumab in Head and Neck Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-09-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: recurrentmetastaticcelland neckhead and
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluateimmunogenicitystudy tosubjects
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 28 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase III Open Label Study of MEDI 4736 With/Without Tremelimumab Versus Standard of Care (SOC) in Recurrent/Metastatic Head and Neck Cancer NCT02551159 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Study of MEDI4736 Monotherapy and in Combination With Tremelimumab Versus Standard of Care Therapy in Patients With Head and Neck Cancer NCT02369874 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Phase II Study of MEDI4736, Tremelimumab, and MEDI4736 in Combination w/ Tremelimumab Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck NCT02319044 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of MEDI0457 and Durvalumab in Participants With Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) Associated Recurrent/Metastatic Head and Neck Cancer NCT03162224 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• Durvalumab (MEDI4736) With Cetuximab in Previously Treated Recurrent or Metastatic Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT03691714 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.