Safety and Efficacy of MEDI0457 and Durvalumab in Participants With Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) Associated Recurrent/Metastatic Head and Neck Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-03-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: and neckhead andcancermetastaticsquamous cell
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsvaccineopen labelto evaluateevaluate the
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 29 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 171 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 12 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 222 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase III Open Label Study of MEDI 4736 With/Without Tremelimumab Versus Standard of Care (SOC) in Recurrent/Metastatic Head and Neck Cancer NCT02551159 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Study of MEDI4736 Monotherapy and in Combination With Tremelimumab Versus Standard of Care Therapy in Patients With Head and Neck Cancer NCT02369874 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• A Phase I Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of MEDI4736 (Durvalumab) With Tremelimumab in Head and Neck Cancer NCT02262741 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• Phase II Study of MEDI4736, Tremelimumab, and MEDI4736 in Combination w/ Tremelimumab Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck NCT02319044 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Durvalumab (MEDI4736) With Cetuximab in Previously Treated Recurrent or Metastatic Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT03691714 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.