Phase III Open Label Study of MEDI 4736 With/Without Tremelimumab Versus Standard of Care (SOC) in Recurrent/Metastatic Head and Neck Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-05-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellsquamousand neckhead andrecurrent
  Phrases that lowered it: metastaticcombinationhormonaldoseopen label
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 130 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 182 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1333 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 13628 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 94951 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 6 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 91.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of MEDI4736 Monotherapy and in Combination With Tremelimumab Versus Standard of Care Therapy in Patients With Head and Neck Cancer NCT02369874 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• A Phase I Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of MEDI4736 (Durvalumab) With Tremelimumab in Head and Neck Cancer NCT02262741 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• Phase II Study of MEDI4736, Tremelimumab, and MEDI4736 in Combination w/ Tremelimumab Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck NCT02319044 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of MEDI0457 and Durvalumab in Participants With Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) Associated Recurrent/Metastatic Head and Neck Cancer NCT03162224 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• Phase II Study of MEDI4736 Monotherapy in Treatment of Recurrent or Metastatic Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck NCT02207530 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.