Anti-OX40 Antibody in Head and Neck Cancer Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellheadcarcinomaand neckdisease
  Phrases that lowered it: antibodyprotocol definedoralsafety ofcriteria patients
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 40% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 4 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase I Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of MEDI4736 (Durvalumab) With Tremelimumab in Head and Neck Cancer NCT02262741 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• Phase III Open Label Study of MEDI 4736 With/Without Tremelimumab Versus Standard of Care (SOC) in Recurrent/Metastatic Head and Neck Cancer NCT02551159 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Phase II Study of MEDI4736, Tremelimumab, and MEDI4736 in Combination w/ Tremelimumab Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck NCT02319044 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Durvalumab (MEDI4736) With Cetuximab in Previously Treated Recurrent or Metastatic Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT03691714 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Study of MEDI4736 Monotherapy and in Combination With Tremelimumab Versus Standard of Care Therapy in Patients With Head and Neck Cancer NCT02369874 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.