A Study Of Palbociclib (PD-0332991) + Letrozole VS. Placebo+ Letrozole For 1st Line Treatment Of Asian Postmenopausal Women With ER+/HER2- Advanced Breast Cancer [PALOMA-4]

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-02-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: canceradvanceddiseaseplaceborecurrent
  Phrases that lowered it: to comparecompare theantipositivethe clinical
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 1470 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 217 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Palbociclib (PD-0332991) + Letrozole vs. Letrozole For 1st Line Treatment Of Postmenopausal Women With ER+/HER2- Advanced Breast Cancer (PALOMA-2) NCT01740427 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Palbociclib in Combination With Fulvestrant or Letrozole in Patients With ER+, HER2- Advanced Breast Cancer NCT02491983 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Study Of Letrozole With Or Without Palbociclib (PD-0332991) For The First-Line Treatment Of Hormone-Receptor Positive Advanced Breast Cancer NCT00721409 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• A Study of Everolimus Plus Exemestane in Chinese Postmenopausal Women With Estrogen Receptor Positive, Locally Advanced, Recurrent, or Metastatic Breast Cancer After Recurrence or Progression on Non-steroidal Aromatase Inhibitor NCT03312738 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• A Study Of Oral Palbociclib (PD-0332991), A CDK4/6 Inhibitor, As Single Agent In Japanese Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors Or In Combination With Letrozole For The First-Line Treatment Of Postmenopausal Japanese Patients With ER (+) HER2 (-) Advanced Breast Cancer NCT01684215 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.