A Study of Everolimus Plus Exemestane in Chinese Postmenopausal Women With Estrogen Receptor Positive, Locally Advanced, Recurrent, or Metastatic Breast Cancer After Recurrence or Progression on Non-steroidal Aromatase Inhibitor

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-04-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticprogressioneverolimusmeasurablewomen
  Phrases that lowered it: inhaledscreeningtopicalvisitdiabetes
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 177 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1040 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 78.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 32536 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Everolimus in Combination With Exemestane in the Treatment of Postmenopausal Women With Estrogen Receptor Positive Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer Who Are Refractory to Letrozole or Anastrozole NCT00863655 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• A Phase II Study of Everolimus in Combination With Exemestane Versus Everolimus Alone Versus Capecitabine in Advance Breast Cancer. NCT01783444 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• 4EVER - Efficacy, Safety, Health Economics, Translational Research of Postmenopausal Women With Estrogen Receptor Positive Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01626222 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• A Trial of Neoadjuvant Everolimus Plus Letrozole Versus FEC in Women With ER-positive, HER2-negative Breast Cancer NCT02742051 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Open-label, Phase II, Study of Everolimus Plus Letrozole in Postmenopausal Women With ER+, HER2- Metastatic or Locally Advanced Breast Cancer NCT01698918 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.