A Trial of Neoadjuvant Everolimus Plus Letrozole Versus FEC in Women With ER-positive, HER2-negative Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-03-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellcancerto determinecarcinomaeverolimus
  Phrases that lowered it: effect ofevaluate theupperto evaluateindex
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 119601 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 25765 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Everolimus Plus Exemestane in Chinese Postmenopausal Women With Estrogen Receptor Positive, Locally Advanced, Recurrent, or Metastatic Breast Cancer After Recurrence or Progression on Non-steroidal Aromatase Inhibitor NCT03312738 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Open-label, Phase II, Study of Everolimus Plus Letrozole in Postmenopausal Women With ER+, HER2- Metastatic or Locally Advanced Breast Cancer NCT01698918 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Everolimus in Combination With Trastuzumab and Paclitaxel in the Treatment of HER2 Positive Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00876395 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Combination of Letrozole, Everolimus and TRC105 in Postmenopausal Women With Hormone-Receptor Positive and Her2 Negative Breast Cancer NCT02520063 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• Everolimus in Combination With Exemestane in the Treatment of Postmenopausal Women With Estrogen Receptor Positive Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer Who Are Refractory to Letrozole or Anastrozole NCT00863655 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.