Combination of Letrozole, Everolimus and TRC105 in Postmenopausal Women With Hormone-Receptor Positive and Her2 Negative Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-12-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: everolimuscancerstagemetastaticadvanced
  Phrases that lowered it: hormoneinvestigateinflammatorypositivebreast cancer
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 62 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 19 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 191 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 91.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 17563 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Trial of Neoadjuvant Everolimus Plus Letrozole Versus FEC in Women With ER-positive, HER2-negative Breast Cancer NCT02742051 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Study of Letrozole With or Without BYL719 or Buparlisib, for the Neoadjuvant Treatment of Postmenopausal Women NCT01923168 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Letrozole in Post-Menopausal Patients With Operable Hormone-Sensitive Breast Cancer NCT03747042 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Anastrozole or Fulvestrant in Treating Postmenopausal Patients With Breast Cancer NCT00871858 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Everolimus in Combination With Trastuzumab and Paclitaxel in the Treatment of HER2 Positive Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00876395 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.