RIvaroxaban for Valvular Heart diseasE and atRial Fibrillation Trial -RIVER Trial

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartacuteto randomizationtumortreatment with
  Phrases that lowered it: mgsafetyinclusiveefficacydaily
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 80.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• INVestIgation of rheumatiC AF Treatment Using Vitamin K Antagonists, Rivaroxaban or Aspirin Studies, Non-Inferiority NCT02832544 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Comparison of Antithrombotic Treatments After Aortic Valve Replacement. Rivaroxaban: A New Antithrombotic Treatment for Patients With Mechanical Prosthetic Aortic Heart Valve. NCT02128841 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated
• RIvoraxaban in Mitral Stenosis NCT03926156 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials terminated
• Explore the Efficacy and Safety of Once-daily Oral Rivaroxaban for the Prevention of Cardiovascular Events in Subjects With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation Scheduled for Cardioversion NCT01674647 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Rivaroxaban vs Warfarin in Patients With Metallic Prosthesis NCT03566303 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.