Rivaroxaban vs Warfarin in Patients With Metallic Prosthesis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (107 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-04-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartmechanicalstrokeactiveanemia
  Phrases that lowered it: patients whoresultspatients within patientsimpairment
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 74 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 229520 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Comparison of Antithrombotic Treatments After Aortic Valve Replacement. Rivaroxaban: A New Antithrombotic Treatment for Patients With Mechanical Prosthetic Aortic Heart Valve. NCT02128841 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated
• RIvaroxaban for Valvular Heart diseasE and atRial Fibrillation Trial -RIVER Trial NCT02303795 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Global Study Comparing a rivAroxaban-based Antithrombotic Strategy to an antipLatelet-based Strategy After Transcatheter aortIc vaLve rEplacement to Optimize Clinical Outcomes NCT02556203 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials terminated
• Extended Venous Thromboembolism Prophylaxis Comparing Rivaroxaban to Aspirin Following Total Hip and Knee Arthroplasty NCT01720108 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Open-label, Randomized Trial in Participants Undergoing TAVR to Determine Safety & Efficacy of Bivalirudin vs UFH NCT01651780 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.