Human Umbilical Cord Stroma MSC in Myocardial Infarction
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (106 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2018-12-30, after 2015-02-02 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-12-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellsheartcellacutemyocardial
Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andevaluate thethe efficacyto evaluate -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 30 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 9 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 18 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1/2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 5 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 8 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 30 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 18 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 9 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Stem Cell in Acute Myocardial Infarction NCT04340609 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
- Human Umbilical Cord-derived Mesenchymal Stem Cells With Injectable Collagen Scaffold Transplantation for Chronic Ischemic Cardiomyopathy NCT02635464 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
- The Application of the Umbilical Cord Mesenchymal Stem Cells in the Complex Treatment of Non-ischemic Heart Failure NCT04325594 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- MSCs for Prevention of MI-induced HF NCT05043610 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
- Multi-intravenous Infusion of Umbilical Cord Mesenchymal Stem Cells in Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction（PRIME-HFrEF Study） NCT04992832 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.