Multi-intravenous Infusion of Umbilical Cord Mesenchymal Stem Cells in Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction（PRIME-HFrEF Study）

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (106 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-04-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellsheartfailureacutecord
  Phrases that lowered it: placebothe studyblinddoublesingle
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 33.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 5238 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 707 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Randomized Clinical Trial of Intravenous Infusion Umbilical Cord Mesenchymal Stem Cells on Cardiopathy NCT01739777 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Safety of Cultured Allogeneic Adult Umbilical Cord Derived Mesenchymal Stem Cells for Heart Disease NCT05147766 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• The Application of the Umbilical Cord Mesenchymal Stem Cells in the Complex Treatment of Non-ischemic Heart Failure NCT04325594 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Human Umbilical Cord-derived Mesenchymal Stem Cells With Injectable Collagen Scaffold Transplantation for Chronic Ischemic Cardiomyopathy NCT02635464 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Umbilical Cord-derived Mesenchymal Stem Cells for Ischemic Stroke NCT04811651 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.