Randomized Clinical Trial of Intravenous Infusion Umbilical Cord Mesenchymal Stem Cells on Cardiopathy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (106 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellsheartventricularstagefailure
  Phrases that lowered it: clinicalsafetyperiodtrial200
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Multi-intravenous Infusion of Umbilical Cord Mesenchymal Stem Cells in Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction（PRIME-HFrEF Study） NCT04992832 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Safety of Cultured Allogeneic Adult Umbilical Cord Derived Mesenchymal Stem Cells for Heart Disease NCT05147766 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• The Application of the Umbilical Cord Mesenchymal Stem Cells in the Complex Treatment of Non-ischemic Heart Failure NCT04325594 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Human Umbilical Cord-derived Mesenchymal Stem Cells With Injectable Collagen Scaffold Transplantation for Chronic Ischemic Cardiomyopathy NCT02635464 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Human Umbilical Cord Stroma MSC in Myocardial Infarction NCT02323477 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.