Human Umbilical Cord-derived Mesenchymal Stem Cells With Injectable Collagen Scaffold Transplantation for Chronic Ischemic Cardiomyopathy
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (35 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-08-31, after 2015-10-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: coronarycellsarteryischemicventricular
Phrases that lowered it: effectsafetymaleefficacyhistory -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 35 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 57.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 35 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 11 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 8 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 144 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 46 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 57.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 1.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- collagen
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- The Application of the Umbilical Cord Mesenchymal Stem Cells in the Complex Treatment of Non-ischemic Heart Failure NCT04325594 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- Stem Cell in Acute Myocardial Infarction NCT04340609 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
- Human Umbilical Cord Stroma MSC in Myocardial Infarction NCT02323477 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated
- Safety of Cultured Allogeneic Adult Umbilical Cord Derived Mesenchymal Stem Cells for Heart Disease NCT05147766 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
- Randomized Clinical Trial of Intravenous Infusion Umbilical Cord Mesenchymal Stem Cells on Cardiopathy NCT01739777 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.