A Phase I/II Trial to Evaluate a Peptide Vaccine Plus Ipilimumab in Patients With Melanoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 29% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-09-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: melanomabrainipilimumabivstage
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsevaluate thelesionsapplyto evaluate
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 28.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 84.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety Study of a Helper Peptide Vaccine Plus Adjuvant Combinations for the Treatment of Melanoma NCT02425306 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
• Melanoma Vaccine Against Neoantigen and Shared Antigens by CD40 Activation and TLR Agonists In Patients With Melanoma (Including Ocular Melanoma) NCT04364230 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Safety Study of a Helper Peptide Vaccine Plus Pembrolizumab NCT02515227 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Vaccination With 6MHP, With or Without Systemic CDX-1127, in Patients With Stage II-IV Melanoma NCT03617328 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Evaluating the Safety and the Biological Effects of Intratumoral Interferon Gamma and a Peptide-Based Vaccine in Patients With Melanoma NCT00977145 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.