NaF/FDG PET/MRI in Measuring Response to Radium Ra 223 Dichloride in Patients With Metastatic Hormone-Resistant Prostate Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-05-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mripatientsimagingpettreating
  Phrases that lowered it: raclinical trialresponse todrugbody
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 57.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 19 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: diagnostic (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 102 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 412 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Randomized Phase IIa Efficacy and Safety Study of Radium-223 Dichloride With Abiraterone Acetate or Enzalutamide in Metastatic Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer (CRPC) NCT02034552 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess How Radium-223 Distributes in the Body of Patients With Prostate Cancer Which Spread to the Bones NCT04521361 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Fluciclovine F18 PET/CT Imaging in Assessing Hormone-Naive Men With Prostate Cancer That Has Spread to the Bone NCT03707184 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• Metabolic Change in Prostate Cancer Bone Metastases on 68Ga-HBED-CC-PSMA PET/CT Following Radium-223 Therapy NCT03062254 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Standard Dose Versus High Dose and Versus Extended Standard Dose Radium-223 Dichloride in Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer Metastatic to the Bone NCT02023697 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.