S1403, Afatinib Dimaleate With or Without Cetuximab in Treating Patients With Newly Diagnosed Stage IV or Recurrent, EGFR Mutation Positive Non-small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (131 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-04-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellnon smallcancerstagepatients must
  Phrases that lowered it: contraceptiveaminotransferaseevaluatesafety ofintended
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 23.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 76.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 147 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 16 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pembrolizumab and Afatinib in Patients With Non-small Cell Lung Cancer With Resistance to Erlotinib NCT02364609 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Afatinib Dimaleate and Capecitabine in Treating Patients With Advanced Refractory Solid Tumors, Pancreatic Cancer or Biliary Cancer NCT02451553 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• Nivolumab, Cabozantinib S-Malate, and Ipilimumab in Treating Patients With Recurrent Stage IV Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03468985 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Trial of Afatinib (BIBW 2992) + Cetuximab in Advanced Solid Tumours NCT02020577 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Testing Afatinib in Combination With Pembrolizumab in Patients With Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Lung NCT03157089 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.