A Clinical Proof-of-principle Trial in Adult Subjects With Newly Diagnosed Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus Investigating the Effect of NNC0114-0006 and Liraglutide on Preservation of Beta-cell Function

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-02-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: celltypechronicor equaltime of
  Phrases that lowered it: trialkgadultsubjectsboth inclusive
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 36.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 72 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 567 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Multiple Dose Trial Investigating the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of NNC0123-0000-0338 in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes NCT01796366 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Trial to Compare NNC0123-0000-0338 in a Tablet Formulation and Insulin Glargine in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Currently Treated With Oral Antidiabetic Therapy NCT02470039 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A Two Part Trial Investigating NN1952 in Healthy Subjects and Subjects With Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes NCT01028404 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Comparison of Two NN5401 Formulations Versus Insulin Glargine, All in Combination With Metformin in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes NCT00614055 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Randomised Proof-of-Principle Trial Investigating Pharmacodynamics, Pharmacokinetics, and Safety of NNC0143-0406 in Subjects With Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus NCT02938572 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.