Pilot Study Evaluating the Efficacy of Certolizumab Pegol for Interstitial Cystitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (169 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-07-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: paininvasiveassociatedmoderate tofollowing
  Phrases that lowered it: patients withpatients whothe efficacywith historytrial
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 61.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluation of Intravesical LP08 in Patients With Interstitial Cystitis/Painful Bladder Syndrome NCT01393223 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Engage 24: Evaluation of the Safety and Effectiveness of URG101 in Subjects With Interstitial Cystitis/Bladder Pain Syndrome NCT02591199 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Investigate Efficacy, Safety, Pharmacodynamics and Pharmacokinetics of ASP6294 in the Treatment of Female Subjects With Bladder Pain Syndrome/Interstitial Cystitis NCT03282318 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• A Pilot Study of the Effects of Mirabegron on Symptoms in Patients With Interstitial Cystitis NCT02787083 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials terminated
• Intravesical Botulinum Toxin A Injections in Treatment of Interstitial Cystitis Refractory to Conventional Treatment NCT01969773 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.