Beta-blockers in Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (143 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2019-07-01, after 2016-01-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-07-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placeboheartdoublecontrolledcardiac
Phrases that lowered it: crossoverpatientsand safetyefficacy andsafety of -
Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 77 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 69.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 217 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 48693 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9834 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 217 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 77 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 48693 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 9834 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 69.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 11.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- carvedilol
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Carvedilol PAH A Pilot Study of Efficacy and Safety NCT02120339 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials terminated
- Pilot Study of the Safety and Efficacy of Carvedilol in Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension NCT00964678 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
- A Study of RVT-1201 in Patients With Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension (ELEVATE 1) NCT03924154 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials terminated
- Beraprost-314d Added-on to Tyvaso® (BEAT) NCT01908699 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
- Selonsertib in Adults With Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension NCT02234141 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.