Safety of Tofacitinib, an Oral Janus Kinase Inhibitor, in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (651 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-04-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: or equalequal toallowedpriortreatment with
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsbloodmild toto moderateday
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 40.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 7504 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 3853 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluation of Tofacitinib in Prevention of Photosensitivity in Lupus NCT05048238 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Open-label Study of Tofacitinib for Moderate to Severe Skin Involvement in Young Adults With Lupus NCT03288324 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and PK Profile of Single and Multiple Doses TJ202 in Patient With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT05140824 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials terminated
• Phase IIa Study for IPG11406 in Patients With Lupus Nephritis NCT06717815 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Belimumab Phase I Study in Chinese Subjects With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT02880852 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.