Evaluation of Tofacitinib in Prevention of Photosensitivity in Lupus
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (106 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-02-29, after 2022-09-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-02-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancercellchronictherapydisease
Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsvaccinevisitday -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 46.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 1403 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 85 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 144923 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1403 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 85 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 144923 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 25629 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 46.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 2.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- tofacitinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety of Tofacitinib, an Oral Janus Kinase Inhibitor, in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT02535689 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Efavaleukin Alfa in Subjects With Active Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT04680637 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
- A Study of DS-7011a in Patients With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT05638802 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
- Open-label Study of Tofacitinib for Moderate to Severe Skin Involvement in Young Adults With Lupus NCT03288324 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and PK Profile of Single and Multiple Doses TJ202 in Patient With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT05140824 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.