Safety and Efficacy Study of ALZT-OP1 in Subjects With Evidence of Early Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-11-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimeradcognitiveevidencedsm
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmarespiratorythe trialdiseasesvalue
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: factorial (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 9 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 74.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Randomized I/II Phase Study of ALZT-OP1 Combination Therapy in Alzheimer's Disease and Normal Healthy Volunteers NCT04570644 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Randomized SAD and MAD Study Evaluating the Safety and Tolerability of RPh201 in Healthy Subjects and in Adults With Alzheimer's Disease NCT01513967 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess the Safety and Biological Activity of AMX0035 for the Treatment of Alzheimer's Disease NCT03533257 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, PK and PD of Posiphen® in Subjects With Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT02925650 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Study of NE3107 in Probable Alzheimer's Disease NCT04669028 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.