S1505: Combination Chemotherapy or Gemcitabine Hydrochloride and Paclitaxel Albumin-Stabilized Nanoparticle Formulation Before Surgery in Treating Patients With Pancreatic Cancer That Can Be Removed by Surgery

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-09-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patients mustregistrationarterypriormri
  Phrases that lowered it: pancreaticgemcitabineoxaliplatinillnessopen
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 23.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 18980 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 151 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 99916 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• FOLFIRI or Modified FOLFIRI and Veliparib as Second Line Therapy in Treating Patients With Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT02890355 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant Plus Adjuvant or Only Adjuvant Nab- Paclitaxel Plus Gemcitabine for Resectable Pancreatic Cancer NCT02047513 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Selumetinib and Akt Inhibitor MK2206 or mFOLFOX Therapy Comprising Oxaliplatin and Fluorouracil in Treating Patients With Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer Previously Treated With Chemotherapy NCT01658943 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Paclitaxel Albumin-Stabilized Nanoparticle Formulation and Gemcitabine Hydrochloride With or Without WEE1 Inhibitor AZD1775 in Treating Patients With Previously Untreated Pancreatic Cancer That Is Metastatic or Cannot Be Removed by Surgery NCT02194829 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Phase II Study of Preoperative FOLFIRINOX Versus Gemcitabine/Nab-Paclitaxel in Patients With Resectable Pancreatic Cancer NCT02243007 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.