A Phase 1b/2 Study of Safety and Efficacy of Rociletinib in Combination With MPDL3280A in Patients With Advanced or Metastatic EGFR-mutant NSCLC

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-09-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticcancerradiationpriorcarcinoma
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccineevaluate theto evaluatensclcanti
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• TIGER-3: Open Label, Multicenter Study of Rociletinib (CO-1686) Mono Therapy Versus Single-agent Cytotoxic Chemotherapy in Patients With Mutant EGFR NSCLC Who Have Failed at Least One Previous EGFR-Directed TKI and Platinum-doublet Chemotherapy NCT02322281 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of MRG003 in Patients With EGFR-Positive Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04838548 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• A Study of Bevacizumab, Carboplatin, and Paclitaxel or Pemetrexed With or Without Atezolizumab in Chemotherapy-Naïve Patients With Stage IV Non-Squamous Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (IMpower151) NCT04194203 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Study of Safety and Efficacy of EGFR-TKI EGF816 in Combination With cMET Inhibitor INC280 in Adult Patients With EGFR Mutated Non Small Cell Lung Cancer. NCT02335944 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials terminated
• Study of Patritumab in Combination With Erlotinib in Subjects With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC). (HER3-Lung) NCT02134015 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.