The PRE-D Trial: Effect of Dapagliflozin, Metformin and Physical Activity in Pre-diabetes

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (220 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-01-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: riskeffect ofdefined asintrasurgery
  Phrases that lowered it: metformintermkgto comparebody
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 30 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 63.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 35779 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 14 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Effectiveness of Dapagliflozin for Weight Loss NCT03968224 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of the Effect of Dapagliflozin in Combination With Metformin on Body Weight in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes NCT00855166 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Treatment Differences Between Canagliflozin and Placebo in Insulin Secretion in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) NCT02009488 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Empagliflozin or Semaglutide in Overweight/Obese Patients With Type 1 Diabetes NCT06762314 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Effects of Dapagliflozin on Hormonal Glucose Homeostasis in Type 1 Diabetes NCT04035031 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.