Pemetrexed and Erlotinib for Metastatic Colorectal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lung cancercell lungsmall cellnon smallpemetrexed
  Phrases that lowered it: participantscolorectalparticipantfemalemale
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 147 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 47.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 281 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 19 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Pemetrexed Versus Gefitinib in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non Small Cell Lung Cancer Who Have Previously Received Platinum-Based Chemotherapy Without Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Mutations NCT00891579 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Pemetrexed or Docetaxel With or Without Erlotinib in Stage IIIB or Stage IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00660816 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Pemetrexed Disodium in Treating Patients With Stage IV Non-small Cell Lung Cancer and ECOG Performance Status 3 NCT02426658 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Pemetrexed and Platinum Use in the Neoadjuvant Setting for Resectable Stage II and IIIA Lung Adenocarcinoma (ECTOP-1002) NCT02980991 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Study of Pemetrexed Plus Cisplatin as First-line Therapy in Patients With Advanced Non-squamous NSCLC NCT01088906 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.