A Study of Prexasertib (LY2606368) in Participants With Extensive Stage Disease Small Cell Lung Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-02-12, after 2016-05-11 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-02-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: lungsmall cellcancerstagemetastases
Phrases that lowered it: participantsevaluateparticipantbasedstudy will -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 145 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 1013 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1013 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 145 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- prexasertib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study for Participants With Small-Cell Lung Cancer NCT01025284 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY2510924 in Participants With Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Carcinoma NCT01439568 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
- A Study of BMS-986012 in Combination With Carboplatin, Etoposide, and Nivolumab as First-line Therapy in Extensive-stage Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04702880 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
- A Study in Non Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01139775 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
- A Study of Carboplatin Plus Etoposide With or Without Atezolizumab in Participants With Untreated Extensive-Stage (ES) Small Cell Lung Cancer (SCLC) NCT02763579 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.