An Investigational Immuno-therapy Study of Nivolumab or Placebo in Participants With Resected Esophageal or Gastroesophageal Junction Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-11-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagesurgerycarcinomacancerin subjects
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsdiagnosed withvaccinestudycriteria
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 30.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 91 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 86.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 527 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 5771 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate Efficacy in Subjects With Esophageal Cancer Treated With Nivolumab and Ipilimumab or Nivolumab Combined With Fluorouracil Plus Cisplatin Versus Fluorouracil Plus Cisplatin NCT03143153 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• A Neoadjuvant Study of Nivolumab Plus Ipilimumab or Nivolumab Plus Chemotherapy Versus Chemotherapy Alone in Early Stage Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT02998528 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Efficacy Study of Nivolumab Plus Ipilimumab or Nivolumab Plus Chemotherapy Against Chemotherapy in Stomach Cancer or Stomach/Esophagus Junction Cancer NCT02872116 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Study of Nivolumab in Unresectable Advanced or Recurrent Esophageal Cancer NCT02569242 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Preoperative Chemotherapy vs. Chemoradiation in Esophageal / GEJ Adenocarcinoma NCT01404156 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.