Vevorisertib (ARQ 751) as a Single Agent or in Combination With Other Anti-Cancer Agents, in Solid Tumors With PIK3CA / AKT / PTEN Mutations (MK-4440-001)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2021-03-10, after 2016-06-26 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-03-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: carcinomametastaticof studyheartconcurrent
Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantssolidtumorscombination -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Number of arms: 12 (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 12 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 8 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 19 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 28930 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 6771 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 92.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 22.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- fulvestrant, paclitaxel
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Pazopanib and Everolimus in PI3KCA Mutation Positive/PTEN Loss Patients NCT01430572 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
- Phase 2 Study of Maintenance OSI-906 Plus Erlotinib (Tarceva®), or Placebo Plus Erlotinib in Patients With Nonprogression Following 4 Cycles of Platinum-based Chemotherapy NCT01186861 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
- Olaparib and Bevacizumab in Relapsed Small Cell Lung Cancer Subjects NCT04939662 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
- OLAParib COmbinations NCT02576444 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
- Palbociclib and Binimetinib in Advanced Triple Negative Breast Cancer NCT04494958 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.