Cambridge Brain Mets Trial 1
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 21% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2021-08-12, after 2015-03-10 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-08-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerbrainmetastaseslunguln
Phrases that lowered it: femaleagedmalecontraceptivespermicide -
Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- other (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 4 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 22 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 8 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 810 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 614 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 82.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 25.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, neurology, respiratory, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- afatinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Afatinib on CNS Metastases and LMD in EGFR Mutation Positive NSCLC NCT03711422 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials terminated
- Safety Study of Afatinib for Brain Cancer NCT02423525 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
- Afatinib (BIBW 2992) in Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients With EGFR Mutation NCT01953913 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- Afatinib (BIBW 2992) QTcF Trial in Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Solid Tumours NCT00875433 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
- Testing Afatinib in Combination With Pembrolizumab in Patients With Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Lung NCT03157089 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.