Phase I Trial of Apalutamide Plus Abiraterone Acetate, Docetaxel, and Prednisone in Patients With mCRPC

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (918 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-10-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: brainvitaminsubjectheartrandomization
  Phrases that lowered it: prostateinvestigatorpatientsonce dailyaccording
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 25.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 44 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 175 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 167712 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 34925 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Docetaxel + ARN-509 in Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT03093272 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials terminated
• Apalutamide and Abiraterone Acetate in African American and Caucasian Men With Metastatic Castrate Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT03098836 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• 3-arm Study of Abiraterone Acetate Alone, Abiraterone Acetate Plus Degarelix, a GnRH Antagonist, and Degarelix Alone for Patients With Prostate Cancer With a Rising PSA or a Rising PSA and Nodal Disease Following Definitive Radical Prostatectomy NCT01751451 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Pacritinib for Biochemical Relapse After Definitive Treatment for Prostate Cancer NCT04635059 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
• Study of Relugolix in Men With Metastatic Castration-Sensitive Prostate Cancer or Non-Metastatic or Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT04666129 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.