A Study to Investigate the Safety and Effect of the Study Drug (FE 204205) in Patients With Cirrhotic Portal Hypertension

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (176 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-09-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: safety tolerabilityfailurechronicintravenouspurpose
  Phrases that lowered it: investigatetrialpharmacokineticsmmhgrandomised
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 16 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 116 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Assess Safety and Efficacy of Ifetroban for Treatment of Portal Hypertension in Cirrhotic Patients NCT02802228 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• A Study of IDN-6556 in Cirrhotic Subjects With Portal Hypertension NCT02230683 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Cobiprostone in Patients With Portal Hypertension NCT00737594 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Test Whether Two Different Doses of Avenciguat Help People With Liver Cirrhosis and High Blood Pressure in the Portal Vein (Main Vessel Going to the Liver) NCT05161481 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Test Whether Avenciguat Helps People With Liver Cirrhosis and High Blood Pressure in the Portal Vein (Main Vessel Going to the Liver) Who Had Bleeding in the Esophagus or Fluid Accumulation in the Belly NCT06082843 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.