Combining Radiosurgery and Nivolumab in the Treatment of Brain Metastases

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancercellmetastasestype diabetesstage
  Phrases that lowered it: mgcorticosteroidspsoriasispatients who10
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 34.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 25 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Screening Trial of Nivolumab With Image Guided, Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy (SBRT) Versus Nivolumab Alone in Patients With Metastatic Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) NCT02684253 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• Stereotactic Radiation and Nivolumab in the Management of Metastatic Breast Cancer Brain Metastases NCT03807765 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• Fostering Efficacy of Anti - PD-1 - Treatment: Nivolumab Plus Radiotherapy in Advanced NSCLC NCT03044626 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Nivo/Ipi Combination Therapy in Symptomatic Brain Metastases NCT02621515 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
• Nivolumab and Ipilimumab Versus Chimiotherapy in First Line Treatment in PS 2 or Elderly in Advanced NSCLC Patients NCT03351361 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.