Stereotactic Radiation and Nivolumab in the Management of Metastatic Breast Cancer Brain Metastases

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-03-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancertumorcellradiationmetastases
  Phrases that lowered it: hcvdrughepatitis virusadministrationindividuals
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 27.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 32.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 42 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 11027 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 166 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 89.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Assess the Efficacy of Pembrolizumab Plus Radiotherapy in Metastatic Triple Negative Breast Cancer Patients NCT02730130 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab With Standard Cytotoxic Chemotherapy in Treatment Naive NSCLC Patients With Asymptomatic Brain Metastases NCT04967417 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Atezolizumab + Stereotactic Radiation in Triple-negative Breast Cancer and Brain Metastasis NCT03483012 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• BMS-986156, Ipilimumab, and Nivolumab With or Without Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy in Treating Patients With Advanced or Metastatic Lung/Chest or Liver Cancers NCT04021043 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Combining Radiosurgery and Nivolumab in the Treatment of Brain Metastases NCT02978404 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.