BMS-986156, Ipilimumab, and Nivolumab With or Without Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy in Treating Patients With Advanced or Metastatic Lung/Chest or Liver Cancers

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-04-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: bmslungcancermetastaticprior
  Phrases that lowered it: bodyweeksliveraminotransferaseupper
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 27.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 824 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 226 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 15753 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Ipilimumab and Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy (SBRT) in Advanced Solid Tumors NCT02239900 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• Anti-CTLA4-NF mAb (BMS986218), Nivolumab, and Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy for the Treatment of Metastatic Solid Malignancies NCT04785287 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
• Low Dose Ipilimumab With Pembrolizumab in Treating Patients With Melanoma That Has Spread to the Brain NCT03873818 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Phase I Study of Ipilimumab Combined With Whole Brain Radiation Therapy or Radiosurgery for Melanoma NCT01703507 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab and Stereotactic Radiosurgery for Melanoma or Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Brain Metastases NCT02858869 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.