Neoadjuvant Chemo-endocrine Therapy Versus Chemotherapy Alone in ER-positive, HER2-negative Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chemotherapyuncontrolledtumorcancerheart
  Phrases that lowered it: breast cancerand safetyefficacy andsafety ofthe efficacy
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 44 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 12683 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 68459 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Studying the Benefits of Adjuvant Sequential vs. Combined Taxane Based Chemotherapy, Followed by Different Biological Treatment Strategies in Early, HER2-positive Breast Cancer NCT00670878 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant Endocrine Therapy in ER-positive, HER2-negative Early Stage Breast Cancer NCT05150652 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• A Study Evaluating Trastuzumab Emtansine Plus Pertuzumab Compared With Chemotherapy Plus Trastuzumab and Pertuzumab for Participants With Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 (HER2)-Positive Breast Cancer NCT02131064 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant Endocrine Therapy in Hormone Receptor-Positive, Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 (HER2)-Negative Node-Negative Breast Cancer NCT03219476 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• TCH Versus EC-TH as Neoadjuvant Treatment for HER2-Positive Breast Cancer NCT03140553 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.