Neoadjuvant Endocrine Therapy in ER-positive, HER2-negative Early Stage Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-06-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagebreast cancertherapynegativeher2
  Phrases that lowered it: the efficacyendocrinethis trialwrittenhigher
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 75.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 11623 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 103101 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Neoadjuvant Endocrine Therapy in Hormone Receptor-Positive, Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 (HER2)-Negative Node-Negative Breast Cancer NCT03219476 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Feasibility Study of Presurgical Hormone Therapy (Anastrozole) in Breast Cancer Patients NCT01972984 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant Chemo-endocrine Therapy Versus Chemotherapy Alone in ER-positive, HER2-negative Breast Cancer NCT02980965 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Estrogen in Postmenopausal Women With ER Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer After Failure of Sequential Endocrine Therapy NCT00661531 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
• Letrozole or Tamoxifen Citrate in Treating Older Postmenopausal Women Undergoing Surgery for Breast Cancer NCT00949598 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.