NOACs for Stroke Prevention in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation and Previous ICH

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-02-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: hemorrhagestroketo determineatrialfibrillation
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andstudy tothe efficacysafety of
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 72.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 59013 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Treatment of Intracerebral Hemorrhage in Patients on Non-vitamin K Antagonist NCT02866838 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Apixaban After Anticoagulation-associated Intracerebral Haemorrhage in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation NCT02565693 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Rivaroxaban Versus Warfarin in Acute Ischemic Stroke With Atrial Fibrillation NCT02042534 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• PREvention of STroke in Intracerebral haemorrhaGE Survivors With Atrial Fibrillation NCT03996772 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• A Study Exploring Two Strategies of Rivaroxaban (JNJ39039039; BAY-59-7939) and One of Oral Vitamin K Antagonist in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation Who Undergo Percutaneous Coronary Intervention NCT01830543 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.