A Study of MP-101 in Dementia-Related Psychosis and/or Agitation and Aggression

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-01-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientdementiagreatermsalzheimer
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsclinical trialefficacysafetyhave history
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of CYR-101 in Patients With Schizophrenia NCT00861796 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• A Safety Study of Pimavanserin in Adult and Elderly Subjects Experiencing Neuropsychiatric Symptoms Related to Neurodegenerative Disease NCT03575052 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Dexmedetomidine in the Treatment of Agitation Associated With Schizophrenia and Bipolar Disorder (SERENITY III) NCT05658510 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• This Study Tests Whether BI 409306 Prevents Patients With a Specific Type of Mental Illness (Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome) From Becoming Worse. This Study Looks at How Well Patients Tolerate the Medicine and How Effective it is Over 1 Year NCT03230097 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials terminated
• Study of Systemic and Ocular Safety and Pharmacokinetics of BI 409306 in Patients With Schizophrenia, Alzheimer's Disease, and Healthy Volunteers NCT02392468 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.