Combined Therapy With Narrow-Band Ultraviolet B Phototherapy and Apremilast for the Treatment of Vitiligo

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (81 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-08-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 19.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellrandomizationcellsradiationdl
  Phrases that lowered it: visitasthmasubjectsmaleexamination
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 20.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 55 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 158 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 15261 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy of ARQ-252 Cream 0.3% in Subjects With Non-Segmental Facial Vitiligo NCT04811131 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Pharmacokinetics of VYN201 Gel in Subjects With Non-segmental Vitiligo. NCT06493578 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials terminated
• Evaluation of Effect and Tolerance of the Association of Baricitinib and Phototherapy Versus Phototherapy in Adults With Progressive Vitiligo NCT04822584 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Repigmentation Using Apremilast and Phototherapy In Diffuse VITILIGO NCT03036995 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• A Study of ATI-50002 Topical Solution for the Treatment of Vitiligo NCT03468855 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.