Safety and Efficacy of ARQ-252 Cream 0.3% in Subjects With Non-Segmental Facial Vitiligo
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (240 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2021-08-09, after 2021-03-04 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-08-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjectsubjects withpriorlast dosecarcinoma
Phrases that lowered it: facetopicalfacialareaparticipant -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 9 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 15 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Combined Therapy With Narrow-Band Ultraviolet B Phototherapy and Apremilast for the Treatment of Vitiligo NCT03123016 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Pharmacokinetics of VYN201 Gel in Subjects With Non-segmental Vitiligo. NCT06493578 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials terminated
- A Study of ATI-50002 Topical Solution for the Treatment of Vitiligo NCT03468855 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
- A 52-Week Study of Ritlecitinib Oral Capsules in Adults and Adolescents With Nonsegmental Vitiligo (Active and Stable) Tranquillo NCT05583526 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
- Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics and Clinical Effect of GSK2646264 in Cutaneous Lupus Erythematosus Subjects NCT02927457 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.