A Study of ATI-50002 Topical Solution for the Treatment of Vitiligo

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (240 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-10-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: treatedsubject hassubjects withpsoriasisand efficacy
  Phrases that lowered it: visitscreeningthe investigatorhas historythe opinion
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy of ARQ-252 Cream 0.3% in Subjects With Non-Segmental Facial Vitiligo NCT04811131 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Pharmacokinetics of VYN201 Gel in Subjects With Non-segmental Vitiligo. NCT06493578 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials terminated
• A 52-Week Study of Ritlecitinib Oral Capsules in Adults and Adolescents With Nonsegmental Vitiligo (Active and Stable) Tranquillo NCT05583526 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Combined Therapy With Narrow-Band Ultraviolet B Phototherapy and Apremilast for the Treatment of Vitiligo NCT03123016 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of AMG 714 for Vitiligo NCT04338581 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.