Neoadjuvant Apalutamide (ARN509) and Radical Prostatectomy in Treatment of Intermediate to High Risk Prostate Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-08-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerradiationneoadjuvantsmallmalignancy
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsprostateefficacytreatment ofimpairment
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Apalutamide (Adjuvant Treatment) and Androgen Deprivation Therapy (ADT) in Participants Who Have Undergone Radical Prostatectomy (RP) for Non-metastatic Prostate Cancer and Who Are at High Risk for Metastases NCT04523207 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant Androgen Deprivation Therapy Plus Abiraterone With or Without Apalutamide for High-Risk Prostate Cancer NCT02789878 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• Anti-Androgens and Cabazitaxel in Defining Complete Response in Prostatectomy (ACDC Trial) NCT02543255 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Comparative Study of Use of Alpha-Blockers to Treat Symptoms in Prostate Cancer Patients Undergoing Radiation Therapy NCT02220829 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• A Salvage Trial of AR Inhibition With ADT and Apalutamide With Radiation Therapy Followed by Docetaxel in Men With PSA Recurrent Prostate Cancer After Radical Prostatectomy (STARTAR) NCT03311555 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.