Osimertinib and Bevacizumab Versus Osimertinib Alone as Second-line Treatment in Stage IIIb-IVb NSCLC With Confirmed EGFRm and T790M

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-02-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: nsclccell lungsmall celllung cancerstage
  Phrases that lowered it: plasmalinecarcinomaaccordingsquamous
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 31.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Osimertinib and Locally Ablative Radiotherapy in Patients With Synchronous Oligo-metastatic EGFR Mutant NSCLC (STEREO) NCT04908956 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
• AZD9291 (Osimertinib) Versus Platinum-Based Doublet-Chemotherapy in Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02151981 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Assessing an Oral Janus Kinase Inhibitor, AZD4205, in Combination With Osimertinib in Patients Who Have Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03450330 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• AZD9291 First Time In Patients Ascending Dose Study NCT01802632 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Osimertinib or Docetaxel-bevacizumab as Third-line Treatment in EGFR T790M Mutated Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02959749 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.