Osimertinib or Docetaxel-bevacizumab as Third-line Treatment in EGFR T790M Mutated Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (273 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cell lungsmall cellcancerbevacizumabnon small
  Phrases that lowered it: patientslineefficacy andthe efficacystudy was
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 30.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 55537 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7728 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Osimertinib and Bevacizumab Versus Osimertinib Alone as Second-line Treatment in Stage IIIb-IVb NSCLC With Confirmed EGFRm and T790M NCT03133546 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Influence of Prior Chemotherapy on Clinical Benefit With Erlotinib in Patients With Advanced Non-Squamous Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer With or Without EGFR Gene Mutation NCT01204307 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Combination of Osimertinib and Aspirin to Treat EGFR Mutation NSCLC Patients NCT04184921 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• EGFR-TKI Combined With Concurrent or Sequential Chemotherapy for Patients of Gradual Progression NCT03544814 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Osimertinib Combined With Anlotinib in EGFR T790M Mutated NSCLC Patients With Progression on Osimertinib Treatment NCT04438902 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.