Multicentre, Randomised Phase III Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Hetrombopag Olamine in Idiopathic Thrombocytopenic Purpura (ITP) Patient

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-01-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ulnsubject haslimitof normaltherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: clinicalsubjects whoto evaluatethe studyopen label
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 45 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Clinical Evaluation of Eltrombopag in Chronic Idiopathic Thrombocytopenic Purpura (ITP) NCT00828750 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Eltrombopag Phase III Study In Chinese Chronic ITP Patients NCT01762761 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Eltrombopag in Pediatric Patients With Thrombocytopenia From Chronic Idiopathic Thrombocytopenic Purpura (ITP) NCT00908037 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3, Multicenter, Randomized, Double-blind,Active-controlled, Parallel-group Trial With an Open-labelExtension Phase to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of OralE5501 Versus Eltrombopag, in Adults With Chronic ImmuneThrombocytopenia (Idiopathic Thrombocytopenic Purpura) NCT01433978 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated
• Lusutrombopag in the Treatment of Immune Thrombocytopenia (ITP) NCT06287567 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.