Study of Pharmacodynamics, Pharmacokinetics, Safety and Tolerability of VAY736 in Patients With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-02-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: tolerabilityplacebo controlledsubjectrituximabrandomization
  Phrases that lowered it: investigatefev1predictedpatientsthis trial
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1065 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 174 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Randomized, Double-blind Study of Efficacy and Safety of Bexotegrast (PLN-74809) for Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis NCT06097260 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• Macitentan Use in an Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Clinical Study NCT00903331 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of CC-90001 in Subjects With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis NCT03142191 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of Pirfenidone in Patients With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) NCT01366209 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of QAX576 in Patients With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) NCT01266135 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.