METIMMOX: Colorectal Cancer METastasis - Shaping Anti-tumor IMMunity by OXaliplatin

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-03-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerpatientstageulndisease
  Phrases that lowered it: oxaliplatincolorectalhigher thanthe efficacyrelapsed
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 117650 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 25596 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• NIVOLUMAB Plus IPILIMUMAB and TEMOZOLOMIDE in Microsatellite Stable, MGMT Silenced Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT03832621 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Study of FOLFIRI Plus Cetuximab Plus IMO-2055 in Patients With Colorectal Cancer NCT00719199 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials terminated
• Preoperative Immunotherapy (Pembrolizumab) for Patients With Colorectal Cancer and Resectable Hepatic Metastases NCT03844750 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
• Olaptesed (NOX-A12) Alone and in Combination With Pembrolizumab in Colorectal and Pancreatic Cancer NCT03168139 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• PolyPEPI1018 Vaccine and CDx for the Treatment of Metastatic Colorectal Cancer (OBERTO) NCT03391232 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.