A First-in-Human Study of D-0502 Alone and in Combination With Palbociclib in Women With Advanced or Metastatic ER-Positive and HER2-Negative Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-10-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticcancertherapyher2advanced
  Phrases that lowered it: open labelsingleparticipantsevaluatedrug
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 47.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Palbociclib in Estrogen Receptor Positive (ER+) Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 Positive (HER2+) Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT03709082 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• Palbociclib in Combination With Fulvestrant or Letrozole in Patients With ER+, HER2- Advanced Breast Cancer NCT02491983 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• A Phase I, Multicenter, Open-Label, Multi-Part, Dose-escalation Study of RAD1901 in Postmenopausal Women With Advanced Estrogen Receptor Positive and HER2-Negative Breast Cancer NCT02338349 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Study Of Letrozole With Or Without Palbociclib (PD-0332991) For The First-Line Treatment Of Hormone-Receptor Positive Advanced Breast Cancer NCT00721409 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• A Study of GDC-0810 Single Agent or in Combination With Palbociclib and/or a Luteinizing Hormone-Releasing Hormone (LHRH) Agonist in Women With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Estrogen Receptor Positive Breast Cancer NCT01823835 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.